As a company that performs work preparing corporate clients for executing securities offerings we are in the unique position of seeing market changes early in their lifecycle. As business confidence starts to drop we immediately see the impact in terms of volume as corporate issuers will pause capital raising efforts if the forward looking data is negative regarding the economy. We saw the impact of the Covid19 pandemic as early as January 2020. We also see the signs of recovery sooner than most as business clients tend to look 6-12 months out for planning business expansion and related capital raise activities.
At this point we are seeing the green shoots of an economic recovery. Internally we are seeing transactional volume returning to pre-2020 levels of activity and the overall public securities markets are now showing signs of an economic recovery:
– The rate of inflation is dropping quickly
– Retail sales came in stronger in May than expected
– The S&P500 is now clearly out of bear market territory and has started on a new bull market run higher
– The UMICH gauge of consumer sentiment came in higher than expected for June
– U.S. manufacturing sentiment was up
– Commercial real estate is starting to see signs of recovery based on lease activity in places like New York City
Further, it took 3.5 years from the start of the Great Recession in 2008 to really see the recovery gain traction (mid 2011). We are now 3.5 years from the onset of the damage from the Covid19 pandemic and the start of the economic issues that followed.
As such, we are expecting a strong second half of 2023 for capital raise activity and for the economy in general as we clear the final hurdles of economic damage from the 2020-2022 timeframe.
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Friday June 16, 2023
Category: Uncategorized
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